California's Congressional GOP members at risk in 2018

California's Congressional GOP members at risk in 2018

So let's move now - and who knows, if we move faster than regional competitors like NY, it may give us a leg up.

On balance, I think they tilt against the plan's reception.

Maybe I'm completely wrong in my outlook; I certainly hope so.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that, even without the tax cuts, the government's debt will swell to at least $25 trillion over the next 10 years.

Mitigating factors aside, we should expect the president's party to lose seats in the House, where the GOP presently holds a 24-seat majority.

He cited regulation rollbacks, the tax overhaul signed into law December 22, and Trump's success at naming conservatives to the Supreme Court and appeals courts across the country. So why is this a negative?

A more distorted economy is not a healthy economy.

New York Times columnist Bret Stephens argued that regular folks will be happy to see higher stock prices reflected in their retirement accounts, but that's because he's conflated shareholdings with share values (it's the latter that matter most). CT home values could drop by 10 percent or more, according the National Association of Realtors. He's reported to be planning to duck accountability by retiring.

And this fraught political environment could complicate the tax law's implementation and future.

Republicans used a similar full-court candidate strategy in 2010 to seize control of both chambers for the first time in 140 years.

Employers and the companies that administer their payrolls must, pending guidance from the IRS, quickly adjust their employees' W-4 forms to ensure that the correct amount is withheld. The slightly larger paychecks will soon be taken for granted.

Some key economic indicators: People notice higher interest rates on home, auto and student loans, and rates are surely going up next year.

After just handing wealthy Americans a massive tax cut, Republicans would be cruel indeed to cite the deficit as pretext for eroding the social safety net on which the poorest depend, particularly as they preserved benefits for richer people.

Bad first impression and few trust Trump: You only get one chance to make a first impression, and this plan made a bad one out of the gate. One segment certainly won't: the millions who will retain and just who signed up for health coverage under the Affordable Care Act, though Trump has done all he could to eviscerate it.

It will not only lure tax-battered corporations back home from overseas, it will also unlock capital investment to create stronger economic growth and better paying jobs, boost middle class incomes, and hand the GOP a winning issue heading into the 2018 mid-term elections. The sustaining strength of the bull market Mr. Trump inherited, and the nation's record low unemployment, remain his best counters to public displeasure with his impulsive and impetuous nature, amid continuing public doubts about his fitness for the presidency.

Speaking of which, Trump has not ruled out another stab at repealing and replacing Obamacare, an effort so unpopular that it thrice failed in 2017. That might help improve its impression, but it's widely understood that companies such as AT&T and Comcast are getting big, permanent cuts while bonuses are a one-time thing.

Much of the complexity and distortion in the U.S. tax code arises from different types of income being taxed at different rates. But some Democrats are looking for ways to get out in front of GOP impediments, which may include them releasing their own minority report to highlight any forms of obstruction.

There's one wild card for your watch list. "I see that Senate race as a wake-up call". Such differential treatment leads not only to the (correct) perception that the tax code is unfair, but also to inefficiencies: resources move to favored sectors, and are wasted as firms try to convert their incomes and activities into the more favored forms. So I know where there are hundreds of billions of dollars, eventually trillions, that can be saved by abolishing waste-ridden, outmoded, nonessential, inefficient programs, bureaus, subsidies and agencies.

That prediction overlooks some realities.

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