New Jersey Democrats in Strong Position to Flip GOP Districts

New Jersey Democrats in Strong Position to Flip GOP Districts

As of Friday, there are 44 more Republicans in the House than Democrats. In January, by contrast, Democrats held similar margins in all three groups - 13, 12 and 15 points, respectively.

In the five House seats now held by a Republican, voter preference is split 46 percent for the GOP candidate and 44 percent for the Democrat, according to the poll.

Almost 40 percent of registered voters believe it is extremely important that political candidates share their views on gun control.

President Trump is dragging down New Jersey Republicans, according to the poll.

As of the week of April 2-8, Trump's approval rating remained at 41 percent, with 54 percent disapproving of the job he is doing as president, according to Gallup.

The totals represent 25 of the most competitive congressional races across the country, including 23 now held by Republicans, according to a Reuters review of the ratings of three independent political analysis groups: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Overall, Democrats won the congressional vote in 2014 by just two points, 50 percent to 48 percent. "Not merely will be new-jersey Democrats doing greater on the generic household ballot state wide, but also the change is coming nearly entirely out of districts now owned by the GOP".

Other public polls have found a narrowing in Democrats' midterm advantage, although it has been less sharp than in the Post-ABC poll.

Using another gauge, registered voters who see Trump favorably as a person are 10 points more likely than those who see him unfavorably to seek a candidate who agrees with them. In December, 35% said Democrats would be best, while 30% said Republicans.

At the same time, white voters with college degrees, a competitive voting bloc, are 14 points more likely to say they are certain to vote than whites with some college or less, a group that has increasingly favored Republicans and voted for Trump at record levels. In the Senate, the GOP advantage is slimmer, with 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and two independents that caucus with the Democrats.

The generic ballot - asking people if they'd vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in their congressional district - is a rough gauge, in part because so many seats are not seriously contested, often due at least in part to gerrymandering.

Still, the analysis of federal campaign finance disclosures also shows that the average Republican candidate has raised more funds than the average Democrat. Fewer, but still half, call it important for them to back a candidate who shares their view of Donald Trump, and a yet small number, about a third, are looking for a candidate who agrees with them about Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader. Among Republicans, she is well-known and widely disliked, with 74 percent holding unfavorable views of her, 63 percent strongly.

The poll of 703 New Jersey adults, including a subset of 632 registered voters, was conducted from April 6 to April 10. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent for the full sample and +/- 3.9 percent for voters.

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